Bola Tinubu's Nigérien headache.

Judging by recent events, the next few months are going to be crucial in shaping the government of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. His response to the mounting challenges, home and abroad, will shine a light on his much touted resume of the man who gets things done. Bola Tinubu has his plate full and I do not envy him. I do not pity him either, he asked to be trusted with the presidency and the time has come for him to deliver! 

I will not attempt to dissect all Bola Tinubu has to contend with, that will take many months to get through, this is in direct response to the ongoing coup in Niger and the threats by ECOWAS, through Tinubu.

While it is unfortunate the so-called giant of Africa has no clear cut foreign policy agenda, there is no better time to forge one than now! The president of Nigeria must make it clear to the West, their allies and enemies that our soft and hard powers are absolutely for sale to the best suitors and we will only line behind whoever is best for our interests. Nigeria must make it clear we are no stooge of the West, neither are we errand boys to Russia, China or whoever think it's their turn to dictate international politics and policies, we will only stand for ideas that promote our economic growth and security and if the people of Niger will stand with a military dictator, good luck to them, as long as our peace is not threatened.

This is not a controversial take at all, it will not be popular with the American government or the French but to paraphrase a former U. S president, "Nigeria first". Why should we carry water for the Americans or French? They're both governed by unpopular presidents who won because they were literally "the better of two evils" which means their promises are not worth the papers they're printed on as it can quickly be overturned by a new government (see Paris climate agreement and Iran nuclear deal). Emmanuel Macron of France, on his part, is a serial loser in international diplomacy; he tried to convince Donald Trump and the Americans to stay in the Paris climate accord in 2017 and failed, the same repeated itself when he tried to convince Trump to not rip apart America's nuclear treaty with Iran. Recently, he tried and failed spectacularly, in convincing Putin against taking military actions in Ukraine. What exactly are the upsides to following leaders like that?

Don't get the wrong idea, I am a staunch believer in democracy and will continue to defend it as the best form of government we have today but anyone who has followed developments in Niger can only draw one conclusion - the democratically elected president was deeply unpopular and any attempt to force him back on the people will be resisted. Threats of force by ECOWAS (read: Nigeria) is not a remedy, especially when there are no immediate gains for us.

What the Nigerian government should advocate for is peace, stability and hopefully, a peaceful transition to another democratically elected leader in Niger within a very short period.

We share a border with Niger, if war breaks out, we will be both aggressors and victims as we will be prosecuting the war with men and resources we desperately need back home and most of the displaced persons from that war will flood Nigeria. France and America will not kick in squat, if you need more convincing on the horrors of starting a war off the promises of the West, take a trip to Kyiv!

It is time for Nigeria to build a robust and predictable foreign policy objective making it clear to the rest of the world we are to be courted not ordered around. A phone call from the vice president of America will not be enough. And, we must not be fooled into thinking the West have any interest in protecting democracy in Africa, they have made it abundantly clear they will only respond when their interests are threatened. If they want us doing their bidding, they must pay a price and if Vladimir Putin comes in with a higher bid, our hands are obviously tied.