PDP: 2023 Elections Post Mortem

When Mitt Romney and the Republican party lost the US presidential election to Barack Obama and the democrats in 2012, they did what was commonly known as the GOP Autopsy. In their words, it was "the most comprehensive post election review" ever made in US history. We'll leave it to historians to judge the accuracy of that.

As a PDP sympathiser, I have taken it upon myself to do the same for Nigeria's once powerful party. I have not asked to be paid, don't really expect a party who can't complete their national secretariat in 20 years to pay for anything.

I continue to believe the ruling APC is weak and no more than a castle built on quick sand. In my opinion, APC supporters are very similar to Trump supporters in the US. They voted for an incompetent man but they were so invested in him they can't admit they made a mess so, they just keep doubling down.

To the issues, first, the PDP nominated the weakest opposition candidate in modern history. An opposition candidate winning the presidential election is something of an eclipse in Africa. It doesn't happen often. When it does, it's usually a culmination of several factors; a populist movement, a popular candidate, foreign (read: western) interference. Atiku Abubakar and his running mate, Ifeanyi Okowa had none of those working in their favour. Yes, the ruling APC have delivered an unmatched level of disasterclass but the former vice president was largely responsible for the ruling party's rise to power. Mr. Atiku was not popular in any major demographic who could shift the election dramatically in his favour, he didn't have a good reputation and the only thing working for him was his propensity to spend money, if you believe the rumours. When Muhammadu Buhari and the APC took power in 2015, they had everything in their favour they needed; a weak incumbent, a popular candidate, a message that quickly resonated with the people brought to you by David Axelrod, the famous "Change" slogan. Buhari was widely regarded as a honest disciplinarian who lived a very simple life and just wanted the best for the country, whether that is true or not is there for all to judge but, 8 years ago, His party had all the right messages, in Atiku's case, the most popular belief about him is he's a chronic thief and an enabler of corrupt practices, again, whether that is true or not does not matter in an election season where catchphrases and slogans are more powerful than nuanced speeches and policy proposals. The best policy statement Atiku had, in my opinion, His plan to private some major government infrastructure like the refineries was tainted as a scheme with which he intended to enrich his friends. If the PDP hope to ever come out of political oblivion, they must recognize the need to find and present a candidate whose records are not so tainted.

"...Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation; and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand.”

Matthew 12 : 25

PDP members and leaders obviously don't read the scriptures. For a party to win anything, whether in power or opposition, it must first unite its house, secure the base before making a play for contestable electorates. The PDP candidate lost the support of 5 of it's sitting governors and did little to nothing to bring them back to the fold. The last time that happened in this country, was to the PDP. Those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. If the 2023 election was a movie, critics would call it a badly written script but it played out in front of everyone, on national TV. First, the national chairman was openly partisan and supported a candidate during the primaries then, they made no concrete attempt to resolve the lingering issues. You can fault Nyesom Wike and his fellow travellers, the so called "G-5 governors" all you want but, like the elders say "an experienced warden knows how to deal with a mad inmate". When you consider how the "third force" candidate, Peter Obi, the man who was their vice presidential candidate just 4 years earlier was unceremoniously pushed out of the PDP and add the G-5 palava on top of it, you'll be forgiven to think Atiku Abubakar was actively working to undermine his party and deliver victory to the APC. 

As if that wasn't enough, the party basically forfeited the election in the south east, the zone that had overwhelmingly voted for them in all previous elections.

 Take a look at the numbers below:

In 2019, PDP received the following number of votes from the south East;

Abia state - 219,698

Anambra - 524,738

Ebonyi - 258,573

Enugu - 355,553

Imo - 334, 923

Total - 1,693,485

Now, compare that with the numbers from 2023;

Abia - 22,676

Anambra - 19,036

Ebonyi - 13,503

Enugu - 15,749

Imo - 30,234

Total - 101,198

They couldn't even get 10% of the numbers they polled 4 years earlier and most of those votes were lost to their vice presidential candidate from that time.

A house divided against itself cannot stand.

Finally and most importantly, for me, the PDP still has no message or plans for the nation. The party responsible for most of the ills that ail the nation today still have no message, no plan and no hope to offer Nigerians. Their message for the last 8 years has basically been "the people you replaced us with have not cleaned up the mess we left fast enough, so, put us back in". That is not and will not be enough to get them back to power. I believe members and leaders of the PDP owe the country and they should pay back, no matter the cost!

The PDP must position itself to cater to it's traditional voting base, giving the trajectory of the last 3 presidential elections; liberal, young, educated people. These set of electorates are all over the country, in every state and local government. They are the future of the country, not the fossils who have become a lag on the nation's potentials. In future elections, the candidates should reflect this demographic and be able to speak to their concerns, hopes and aspirations.